Fifth Oxford/Warwick Seminar
JOINT OXFORD-WARWICK STATISTICS SEMINAR
The Oxford –Warwick Statistics seminar will take place on
Thursday 31 May 2012
Room MS.02, Zeeman Hall
(Mathematics and Statistics Building)
University of Warwick
The programme is as follows:
3:00 Speaker 1: Simon Tavaré, Department of Applied Mathematics and Theoretical Physics, University of Cambridge
Title: Approximate Bayesian Computation for modeling DNA replication dynamics
Abstract: Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) provides a useful approach to inference in complex scientific problems where likelihoods are hard or impossible to compute. From its origins in the mid-90s, ABC has become an established part of a Bayesian’s toolkit. I will give a brief overview of the principles behind ABC, and discuss some of its pros and cons. To illustrate the ideas, I will describe some recent work in my lab that studies the dynamics of DNA replication in yeast, using genome-wide microarray and next-generation sequencing data that provide the highest fidelity map of DNA replication to date.
16.00 - 16.30 Tea, Coffee & Biscuits (Main Atrium)
16.30 - 17.30 Speaker 2: Simon French (University of Warwick)
Title: Aggregating expert judgement in major societal decisions
Abstract: Society and its systems are becoming more and more complex and that means that risk analyses are having to rely more and more on expert judgement rather than data, simply for the reason that there are insufficient data available. But experts seldom agree, and even when they do there ts no guarantee that they are right. How should their judgements be used in large scale risk analyses. Moreover, how might they be re-used in subsequent analyses on similar but not identical issues?
In this talk we will survey the theory of aggregating expert judgement which has been developed over the past 30-40 years, noting that there are a variety of contexts in which their aggregated judgement may be needed and that different methods may be need for different contexts. We shall also note the lack of a theory of 'Meta-Analysis of Expert Judgement Studies' and that one is greatly needed.
5:30 - Wine & Cheese to be held in Main Atrium
All welcome
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